In the progression of disc herniation, which event is most likely to occur immediately after disc degeneration?

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When a disc degenerates, the outer ring (annulus fibrosus) becomes weaker and fissures form as the nucleus pulposus loses water and pressure drops. This allows the nucleus to bulge outward, but it remains contained by the annulus and surrounding ligaments. That early bulging is why the immediate consequence of degeneration is a prolapse (disc protrusion) rather than material breaking free. If degeneration continues and the annulus tears further, the nucleus can break through and migrate beyond the disc boundary (extrusion) or even fragment (sequestration). Regression would imply a reversal rather than the initial progressive change. So the bulging, contained protrusion is the earliest, most likely next step after degeneration.